It’s often said of ocean rowing that the mental challenge is far greater than the physical one; I don’t doubt this for a second. This week, and in particular today, I’ve fallen foul of perhaps the greatest danger to the mental challenge: forecasting.

I started this week very positively. Having been out here for 5 weeks, I had almost exactly 1,500 miles left to go. Feeling confident, I worked out in my head that I should be able to cover the remaining distance in another 5 weeks, and set about achieving my target of 300 miles each week.

Now, targets like this are great, as long as you’re meeting them. Having seen a weather forecast for the week ahead, I wasn’t feeling overly concerned. But that was just a forecast. I started slowly, with a disappointing first two days, but then things started to look up. The weather was promising to get right behind me and, sure enough, I had a fantastic 24 hours from Monday night.

But then it all went wrong. While I had been congratulating myself about good westerly progress, I failed to acknowledge that I’d gone another 10 miles south. Why should I be worried though? I had every reason to expect the weather to just get better and better. The following day, rather than the brilliant day I was expecting, I struggled against unhelpful winds, and lost another 20 miles south. Suddenly I became acutely aware that, although I was within 25 degrees of Antigua, I had less than 1 degree to play with further south.

Once again, I went to sleep, fully expecting the weather to come around overnight and this morning. It didn’t, and the northerly winds just keep on coming. Today has been a very frustrating day. It’s not so much the bad weather - I’m used to that! - but more the ruined expectations. Even when rowing as far northwards and as hard as I can, I can only just hold my position. Then you take a 10-minute drinks break and watch the wind casually send you irrecoverably south.

I’ve now put out the para-anchor for a bit. This isn’t so much a necessity with regards progress, but more down to me. I’m afraid to admit that the frustration has got to me a little today, and with only bad news whenever I checked my GPS, the decision was made more with a view to avoiding me making a stupid mistake.

I’m reluctant to say that the weather should improve, but it should! But regardless, my target has been forgotten about. I will get to Antigua sooner or later, but if I get there 10 miles at a time, so be it.

At least that’s what I’m trying to tell myself!